South Africa's house prices are rising - but what does that really mean?
After several years of uncertainty, the South African property market is gradually regaining its footing. In a trend that may be encouraging for sellers, investors, and first-time buyers, we’re starting to see house prices creep upward nationally — with some provinces experiencing rapid growth.
Taking a look at the latest data from FNB and the newly released Statistics SA Property Indices report, we find out more about house price inflation and where the market may be heading.
Prices are rising, but recovery is slow
As we reported earlier, according to FNB’s latest House Price Index, home prices were 2.2% higher in April 2025 compared to the same time last year. This is the fastest growth we’ve seen in almost two years. This suggests that demand is starting to recover, even though the market remains quieter than it was before the pandemic. This aligns broadly with Stats SA’s data, which shows a national average increase of 5.2% between January 2024 and January 2025.
Deeds Office data show that the number of property transactions remains approximately 16% lower than in late 2019. And although estate agents report more activity (in fact, they’re more optimistic than they’ve been in years), homes are taking longer to sell, averaging about 12 weeks on the market, up from 11 weeks at the end of 2024.
In short, there’s momentum, but it's cautious.
Where the growth is happening
It should come as no surprise that not all provinces are growing at the same pace. It should also be no surprise that the Western Cape is leading the way. According to Stats SA, house prices across South Africa rose by 5.2% from January 2024 to January 2025. But in the Western Cape, that number was a much bigger 8.7%. Given the province’s large share of the market, it had a significant impact on the national average.
Stats SA reports even higher year-on-year growth in Limpopo (+9.9%), the Western Cape (+8.7%), and the Free State (+7.5%), highlighting renewed regional momentum in house price inflation. Gauteng saw a modest 2.3% rise, while Eastern Cape grew 4.5% over the same period. Coastal provinces like the Western Cape and Eastern Cape are driving much of this growth.
Looking at the longer-term picture since December 2020, property prices have risen nationally by 17.8%. The North West (+30.6%) and Western Cape (+30.5%) show the strongest long-term growth, while the Northern Cape is the only province to experience a decline, down 7.8% over the same period.
Coastal markets are generally outperforming inland areas, with coastal properties growing at 5.0% annually, versus 3.7% inland. Cape Town is the standout here with house price inflation at 6.2%, which is far above Johannesburg’s 1.8% and Durban’s 1.9%.
Which properties are growing in value?
The affordable home market is seeing the fastest growth, and according to Lightstone, homes in the low-value segment (under R500,000) grew by 6.5% annually in April 2025 — more than any other price category.
In contrast, luxury homes (over R2 million) grew by 4.9%, and mid- to high-value homes by around 3.6%–3.7%.
This makes sense when you consider the economic environment. With rising living costs, interest rate pressures, and global uncertainty, many buyers are looking for value. Affordable homes are becoming more attractive.
Statistics SA reports that there was an increase of 6% in properties sold for the first time across all metropolitan areas, while properties sold for the second or more times rose by 5,9%. The metro area with the biggest drop in properties being sold for the first time was Mangaung, dropping by 8,6%, while the City of Tshwane saw an increase of 8,2% of properties being sold for the first time.
| Type | Annual Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|
| First-time sales | +6.0% | +0.3% |
| Resales | +5.9% | +0.4% |
As for sectional titles versus freehold properties, surprisingly, freehold properties outperformed sectional titles overall in most metropolitan areas. The biggest growth was in Cape Town with an increase of 9,6%. The weakest growth in the freehold market was both Buffalo City and Johannesburg with 2,2%.
The strongest growth in the sectional title market was in Cape Town with an increase of 6%, while Buffalo City saw a decrease of 3,5%.
| Property Type | Annual Change | Monthly Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Freehold | +7.1% | +0.5% | Strongest growth segment overall |
| Sectional Title | +3.1% | +0.4% | Weaker growth, especially in Johannesburg (0.1%) |
Who’s buying, and what are they paying?
The property market continues to be driven largely by first-time buyers, who made up 68% of home loan applications in May 2025. These buyers are slightly younger, with an average age of 38, and although they are spending somewhat less than repeat buyers, their financial preparedness appears to be improving.
The average purchase price among first-time buyers now stands at R1,334,006, up from R1.23 million in 2024, while the average deposit has nearly doubled to R131,323. Despite a high loan-to-value ratio of 98.43%, indicating that most buyers are still financing nearly the full amount, the larger deposits suggest increased financial planning.
Notably, while many buyers continue to apply for bonds through their own banks, approval rates hover around 52%, making it increasingly worthwhile to consider working with a bond originator to secure better financing options.
What does the future hold?
South Africa’s property market appears to be on a cautious yet promising recovery path. According to FNB, house price growth is expected to continue through 2025, with the House Price Index (HPI) averaging 1.8% so far this year, potentially surpassing the initial 1.9% forecast and reaching around 3% by 2026.
For sellers, particularly those in the Western Cape or with properties in the affordable segment, this could be an opportune moment to list, as buyer activity and price momentum are gradually building. First-time buyers should remain optimistic despite affordability challenges; the market still offers favourable conditions, especially with access to competitive financing if you shop around. Investors, meanwhile, may find the best returns in coastal regions or lower-priced segments, where price growth is currently strongest.
While the recovery may be slow and uneven, the overall direction is positive, and for those who are financially prepared and strategic, the current market presents a window of opportunity.
