Modest growth, cautious buyers, and a shift towards affordability 

The South African property market is showing signs of recovery, but the pace remains slow and uneven. The latest FNB House Price Index (HPI) indicates that home values rose by 2.2% year-on-year in April, up from 2.0% in March. This marks the fastest growth in nearly two years and reflects a modest improvement in demand.

Market overview

While home prices are trending upward, overall activity in the market is still below pre-pandemic levels. Deeds Office data shows that transaction volumes remain around 16% lower than in the fourth quarter of 2019. Estate agents, however, report a more optimistic outlook, with activity ratings reaching a three-year high in the first quarter of 2025.

Despite this optimism, market outcomes remain modest. Properties are taking longer to sell, with the average time on the market now at 12 weeks and one day, compared to 11 weeks at the end of 2024.

Buyer behaviour and market challenges

The gap between agent sentiment and actual sales points to continued caution among buyers. The lingering effects of the pandemic, rising living costs, and global uncertainty are all contributing to a more hesitant approach to home buying.

Affordability remains a key issue, particularly in the lower-priced market segments. Many prospective buyers still face significant financial hurdles when it comes to securing a home.

Looking ahead

Market outlook for 2025 and beyond suggests a shift in demand:

• High-end market: The recent dip in consumer confidence due to heightened global and domestic uncertainty is likely to disproportionately impact the affluent segments, potentially leading to slower sales and price stagnation.

• Affordable housing: On the other hand, the lower end of the market may benefit from possible interest rate cuts and a proposed 10% increase in the transfer duty threshold. These changes could boost demand in more accessible price brackets.

House price forecast

With the HPI averaging 1.8% so far in 2025, there is a growing possibility that price growth could exceed the current 1.9% forecast for the year. If this momentum continues, house price growth could reach around 3% by 2026.

The property market is on a slow but steady recovery path. While prices are rising, buyers remain cautious, and affordability continues to be a major concern. However, upcoming policy changes and economic adjustments may offer some relief, especially for those in the market for affordable homes.

Now could be a good time to reassess your property goals, particularly if you’re considering entering the more affordable segments of the market.

Smart strategies for buying in a tight market

Buying a home in a competitive market can be stressful, but with the right approach, you can improve your chances of success.

• Get financially ready: Start with a lifestyle audit and budget. Cut back where you can, save more, and aim to improve your credit score. This will help you qualify for a better loan and reduce your monthly repayments.
• Get pre-qualified: This shows sellers you're a serious buyer and helps you focus only on homes within your price range
• Work with an agent: A good real estate agent knows the market, has access to listings (sometimes before they’re public), and can guide you through negotiations, legal steps, and paperwork.
• Know what you need: Be clear on your must-haves vs. nice-to-haves. Prioritise lifestyle needs like school proximity or space for a growing family over extras like a fireplace or pool.
• Research areas: If your ideal suburb is out of budget, look into nearby areas that offer similar value. Check amenities, traffic, schools, and lifestyle fit.
• Inspect before you commit: Bring in professionals to check the property before making an offer. This gives you negotiating power and peace of mind.

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